Stock Market Chat

Bobbyloads · Mar 8, 2020

CJ275 said:
You're not "betting", it's INSURANCE. Just like auto or home insurance. You don't tie an investment to those, do you? You know why? Because you do MUCH better investing on your own.

If you invested that same $400 per month instead of putting it into the insurance policy, assuming a 7% rate of return, which is conservative, you'd have close to $1,000,000 after 40 years, while your whole life would only give you the $200,000. In your scenario, you spend $200,000 and get $200,000 back(which is losing money, inflation), in my scenario you invest $200,000 and get back $1,000,000. Oh, and you don't have to die to get the money either! :32 (18):

You don't need a 401k or pension. IRAs or regular brokerage accounts are both options.

I understand I started too late I just want it there in case I die and I will be making other investments very soon but your right I might as well keep the $90/month and the 500k pay out and use that $400 saving for the next investment

CohibaRobusto · Mar 8, 2020

CJ275 said:
Then just buy Treasury bonds.

That's actually what I do. Or at least part of my investing strategy. I really like IIM, it's a muni bond fund that has a really high rate of return that I'm pretty sure is mostly exempt from federal income tax. I bought a bunch of TLT before it popped recently also.

mugzy · Mar 9, 2020

Today I will be selling any bonds and bond related funds moving to mid cap aggressive. I'm also taking a position in GE as it is down 11.28% premarket @ $8.31

Seeker · Mar 9, 2020

For the 1st time since 1991 there was a 15 minute trading freeze. Oil is down over 30% to $30 a barrel.

DF · Mar 9, 2020

Seeker said:
For the 1st time since 1991 there was a 15 minute trading freeze. Oil is down over 30% to $30 a barrel.

Time to fill the oil barrel! :32 (19):

Flyingdragon · Mar 9, 2020

A drop in oil results in cheaper gas prices at the pump, u can call it a temp tax cut....

CohibaRobusto · Mar 9, 2020

mugzy said:
Today I will be selling any bonds and bond related funds moving to mid cap aggressive. I'm also taking a position in GE as it is down 11.28% premarket @ $8.31

The ultimate contrarian, I like that! Go mugz! I hope it pays off man.

I'm too scared. Waiting it out. TLT popped up again today though, IIM and IAU are holding strong too, these are what most of my money is in now. I have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines too, waiting for a bottom. I'm not buying that guy's quick recovery thesis I posted, not right now at least.

MrRippedZilla · Mar 9, 2020

The oil crash is due to Russia & Saudi Arabia having a pissing match about whether or not to reduce supply. This is actually a much bigger economic nightmare than the coronovirus because, while good for consumers, it's very bad for anyone holding mid-small cap US shale producers. Not only in terms of equity valuations but also in terms of the sustainability of their debt. Basically, you could be ****ed if you have high yield corporate debt right now. I'm expecting some defaults.

For me, it's another day of continuing to drip-feed back into equities. Tempting as it is to be more aggressive with the drip-feeds, I don't see a bottom anytime soon so I'm keeping some dry powder (spare cash) in reserve for future buying opportunities. I've closed a short position (betting on the price of something going down) I had on crude oil for a couple of weeks too. With high volatility, comes opportunity my dudes. Just saying.

DF · Mar 9, 2020

I used to do frequent trades years ago. The mid to late 90's when it was hard to lose value. I always had great results with oil related stocks.

mugzy · Mar 9, 2020

Picked up VOO this morning at 252.91 its currently 259.62 I will sell at 262.

Seeker · Mar 9, 2020

My son, whose 16 years old is extremely interested in the stock market. Lol he has been following it since he was 14. For Christmas, I opened an account for him with some money using my name. Since he's not 18 yet, we had to do it this way. Lol he's all up in arms every morning. I dont get involved, he wants me to let him do his own thing. If I try to say something, he gets all bent out of shape. Well, it's his money to gain or lose. I gave it to him with the that agreement.

Beserker · Mar 9, 2020

The plunge is great news IMO. Today’s drop is fed in large part by the Saudis/Russian attempt at crude price manipulation. We will benefit from cheap gas for a while to come...

Mark my words. As the COVID frenzy fizzles out due to spring/summer and the media’s insatiable need to feed on something new, the market will rebound at an amazing pace and by Election Day will erase all losses.

Flyingdragon · Mar 9, 2020

Cheap oil will result in massive layoffs and BKs in the Permian Basin. Around 40% of the oil we take out of the ground is tied to companies with high yield debt which depend on oil being higher not lower. Today there are drillers who are losing $15+ a barrel on what they bring up, output costs range from $48-$54 a barrel....U cant do that long before u r out of business.....Add that to the debt payments due and u have a disaster in the making for the industry.

Beserker said:
The plunge is great news IMO. Today’s drop is fed in large part by the Saudis/Russian attempt at crude price manipulation. We will benefit from cheap gas for a while to come...

Mark my words. As the COVID frenzy fizzles out due to spring/summer and the media’s insatiable need to feed on something new, the market will rebound at an amazing pace and by Election Day will erase all losses.

NbleSavage · Mar 9, 2020

I don't have the mind or the training fer speculating on the stock market.

We've got a guy in my company with two PhDs - one from Wharton in applied economics and one from MIT in theoretical mathematics. We call him "The Machine".

He sets the prices on all our major projects, and oversees where we invest and where we pull back. I've seen him leave for lunch, glance at CNN or the like, look at what the market's doing and say something off the cuff like "it'll be here XX in 90 minutes" and fook if he ain't right.

He told me years back when I came up in this company to buy index funds and forget about 'em. I've done that. He says timing the market is a fool's errand - too much uncertainty and the "madness of crowds". I figure he's the closest to an expert I'll ever know, and so I listen to him. No regrets so far.

Iron1 · Mar 9, 2020

NbleSavage said:
He told me years back when I came up in this company to buy index funds and forget about 'em. I've done that. He says timing the market is a fool's errand - too much uncertainty and the "madness of crowds".

He (and you) are right.

Micromanaging your account is a pretty good way to chew up potential profits with various fees and taxes. Playing the market is akin to gambling

CJ · Mar 9, 2020

Iron1 said:
He (and you) are right.

Micromanaging your account is a pretty good way to chew up potential profits with various fees and taxes. Playing the market is akin to gambling

That's my plan too. Just get in the game, mostly diversified index funds, a couple actively managed funds in emerging markets and large caps, and a REIT, good enough.

Beserker · Mar 10, 2020

Flyingdragon said:
Cheap oil will result in massive layoffs and BKs in the Permian Basin. Around 40% of the oil we take out of the ground is tied to companies with high yield debt which depend on oil being higher not lower. Today there are drillers who are losing $15+ a barrel on what they bring up, output costs range from $48-$54 a barrel....U cant do that long before u r out of business.....Add that to the debt payments due and u have a disaster in the making for the industry.

I don’t doubt what you said, however I would suggest that the money put back in the pockets of people like myself who spend $600/month on fuel Will go a long way to stimulate the economy.

Further more, the airline industry will see relief from fewer flights by saving a fukton on jet fuel. Truckers, make out, etc.

The economy is doing so well now, with record unemployment that the optimism and the financial well being so many are coming to see lately will crush all fear mongering.

For example, I build homes for a top 25 builder. We have blown away all sales plans and set records for sales in January and February this year... the traditional weakest months of the year. I’m so busy that the subs have trouble keeping up, and there’s a labor shortage even at all time low unemployment. A memo was just released internally that despite the hysteria, we’re still on the uptick.

This will pass, and we’ll be the better for it. The oil companies will easily weather the storm. Never mind the zero percent interest rates coming and stimulus packages... boom!

gymrat827 · Mar 10, 2020

pairing oil prices with the virus is one reason for a market panic and instability.

Beserker · Mar 11, 2020

Beserker said:
For example, I build homes for a top 25 builder. We have blown away all sales plans and set records for sales in January and February this year... the traditional weakest months of the year. I’m so busy that the subs have trouble keeping up, and there’s a labor shortage even at all time low unemployment. A memo was just released internally that despite the hysteria, we’re still on the uptick.

to follow up on this, we sold 16 homes yesterday as the DOW dropped 2k. 1st quarter last year, our mortgage division originated $490 million in loans. 2020 Q1 is on pace for well over $1 billion. The housing market is a true indicator of the economy IMO.

CohibaRobusto · Mar 11, 2020

I hit a trailing stop on IIM today, so I didn't lose any money on it and made the monthly dividends while I was in. I'm going to stay in cash for a while on this one.

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