Global pandemic: COVID-19

Joliver

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When it comes to fiscal & monetary policy, 29 (non-interventionism) is the total opposite of 08 (intervene).
The depression of 29 did indeed end because of the war. Specifically, thanks to the fiscal stimulus necessary to prepare for the war. Had that stimulus arrived earlier, then you may not have had a depression at all.
Without banking reform (including tax dollar bailout), you weren't going to get any sort of recovery in 08. It was a necessity. QE, I'm with you, has overinflated the value of pretty much everything and goes with the "paper recovery" analogy.

It's only "crony-capitalism wealth distribution" if you don't know how to participate and benefit from it.
I was a broke graduate around 08-09. I borrowed 25 grand from my grandfather (under the false guise of funding post-grad studies) and put it all into the market. That was the first step to me achieving the financial independence that I have today. People who were smart enough to do the same thing earlier this year would've seen the same results, but quicker.
This is capitalism at its best. No "crony" in sight.

“The new law (federal reserve--the PRIVATE entity that controls the nation's money supply) will create inflation whenever the trusts want inflation. From now on depressions will be scientifically created.” --Charles A. Lindbergh

You need to read "the creature from Jekyll island" and "money for nothing." Between 1923 and 1929, the Federal Reserve inflated the money supply by 62%. When JP morgan published the "insolvency rumor" that forced smaller financial institutions to make margin calls to stay solvent and maintain Reg T , the markets sold off. Hence thats why I said "buy a farm or factory for a few dollars." Most couldn't...it was a bank "shakeout." Morgan and Big Bank Inc consolidated their iron grip on US finance.

22% of every US dollar ever created by the fed was created this year. For those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.

Also you say it's only "crony-capitalism" if you don't know how to participate. Patently false. There are quite a few people that know me personally on this forum. I'm a serial entrepreneur. I've owned 4 different businesses in 3 different industries and been successful throughout. So trust me when I say I started a business on a major junction at an interstate. It was coop power, municipal water, county sewer. They drained my lifeblood. Several people on UG probably remember me bitching over a $75k last minute impact fee two weeks before I opened. I gritted my teeth and paid it. Walmart moved in later...they got 30 years of tax abatement....publix got the same deal. I got ****ed....and you would have too.

Covid-19 shows up. I'm ordered to close. Walmart, publix....every major corp stays open. I go to jail for opening. I laid off everyone. I won't reopen.

I'm not some day trader playing capitalist...I built something with blood sweat and tears. I had employees with benefits and I paid a fair wage. Their lives were upended. So don't tell me about capitalism vs crony-capitalism vs socialism. I pink slipped people, sold the assets, and walked away never to reopen just like a lot of other small businesses did. I don't know many people that will volunteer to do it again. I won't. That's economic contraction via government intervention on the small...not the large lobby corps. CRONY-CAPITALISM.

And I know everything is hyperinflated. I'm a commodities and real estate guy. I've watched the dollar shit and buying power fall. I didn't actually make money on gold....it's just that gold is always going to be gold and the dollar is going to be trash.
 

transcend2007

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Pretty graphs aside ... decisions are being made for solely political reasons (in the US) .. anyone who does not see this is in denial ... the blue states are virtually locked down ... while many red states are completely open and have been since May...

Interesting stat ... let's see if anyone knows why it is so ... nearly 80,000 US military have contracted the corona-virus ... 103 have died ...(yes Ripped - even those in New York state survived) ... for those of you attempting to do the math that is 0.0012 .... approximately one-tenth of 1% ... does that sound like a 3% to 5% death rate to you like heard was likely on this very thread of one like it back in March .... the obviously reason for the 1/10th fraction of 1% survival rate in the US military IS AGE ... the death rate under 70 is actually very low .. of course you will not hear this on the news or any where else ... you will get people arguing everything else ... nearly all unrelated to what's important ... stop the lock downs ... open all schools and business immediately .. the hospitals know how to treat it ... time to stop acting like scarred children ... seriously ... when did the world (especial the United States) turn into a complete pvssy ... if my numbers up .. fvck it ... but don't destroy the country any further ...
 

Bro Bundy

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I’m in nj and nyc right now .. I don’t recognize this place any more
 

Yaya

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I’m in nj and nyc right now .. I don’t recognize this place any more

My buddy just went to NYC.. he had an actual in person meeting.. he said its a digusting sad situation
 

MrRippedZilla

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Pretty graphs aside ... decisions are being made for solely political reasons (in the US) .. anyone who does not see this is in denial ... the blue states are virtually locked down ... while many red states are completely open and have been since May...

Interesting stat ... let's see if anyone knows why it is so ... nearly 80,000 US military have contracted the corona-virus ... 103 have died ...(yes Ripped - even those in New York state survived) ... for those of you attempting to do the math that is 0.0012 .... approximately one-tenth of 1% ... does that sound like a 3% to 5% death rate to you like heard was likely on this very thread of one like it back in March .... the obviously reason for the 1/10th fraction of 1% survival rate in the US military IS AGE ... the death rate under 70 is actually very low .. of course you will not hear this on the news or any where else ... you will get people arguing everything else ... nearly all unrelated to what's important ... stop the lock downs ... open all schools and business immediately .. the hospitals know how to treat it ... time to stop acting like scarred children ... seriously ... when did the world (especial the United States) turn into a complete pvssy ... if my numbers up .. fvck it ... but don't destroy the country any further ...
Is it really that difficult to make this post without the passive aggressive bullshit in bold? FYI, I made the same point about the mortality rate in May to argue against further national lockdowns.
 

Jin

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We still have never had mandatory lock downs and have not had any cases in our area. At all.

Life looks the same as it did Pre Covid, only everybody wears masks, not just people who know they are sick (with flu, cold etc).

From what I can gauge culture weighs heavily into how easily Covid can transmit from country to country. That’s the main difference I see.
 

MrRippedZilla

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From what I can gauge culture weighs heavily into how easily Covid can transmit from country to country. That’s the main difference I see.
Yup. Same thing I noticed when analyzing the data that showed no correlation whatsoever between testing & "controlling" the virus. Picked up a geographical correlation, driven by culture, on covid control though. Risk-adverse populations, Japan being a leader here, are doing fine. Risk takers, like the UK & US, not so much.

Here in the UK, the politicians & media portrayed test & trace as the miracle cure. Then we got data showing that it wasn't working because public adherence to the rules (self-isolating when testing positive, etc) was super low. All the testing in the world can't compensate for people not taking basic precautionary steps. Who knew?
 

CJ

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Zilla is Blue now, what the heck is blue?!? :32 (6):
 

MrRippedZilla

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A well-timed paper from the Aussies looking at the impact of entering the labour market during a downturn: The Career effects of labour market conditions at entry

- As with previous recessions, young people are going to take the brunt of the economic hit here. The covid class of 2020, much like the class of 2010, is in for a rough ride.

- 5% rise in youth unemployment is associated with an 8% decline in earnings & 3.5% decline in employment-to-population ratio. After 5 years, earnings still down 3.5% while employment-to-population ratio has recovered. Earnings don't recover until 10 years post-recession.

- Graduates impacted a lot more than those who didn't attend university due to an inability to find a good job match up for their skills. This leads to settling for work at lower production firms and/or human capital depreciation (the complete inability to find relevant work).

- Macro stimulus that allows young people to stay in work, or train to do something else, is a big help. As are reforms to allow more labour market mobility (the ability to switch jobs). Basically, the more dynamic your labour market the quicker you'll recover from this.

The younger generation is going to take a huge economic hit in order to protect their elders (covid poses no real threat to them directly). That needs to be recognized and, at some point soon, the favor should be returned.
 
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white ape

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I am glad that so many of you are on top of the latest data and research. Even if you can't agree with each other :32 (18):

Im busy living my life (work, kid, wife, and MBA school) so it is nice to come here and get the low down. I have heard that cases are going up here in Colorado and they are looking at shutting down some stuff again. That would be a giant bummer. I have tickets for the family to go to Russia in December. The US is saying that US citizens are not being allowed into Russia and when we called the Russian Consulate they were like "he has Visa, yes? He is good" SOOO I may be flying to Russia and hoping for the best.

Whats the details on vaccines or how this whole thing actually originated?
 
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MrRippedZilla

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Whats the details on vaccines or how this whole thing actually originated?
Many vaccine candidates are being tested as we speak and we should know if one of them works by the end of the year. Rolling it out to the public will take a little longer (March-June 2021 I think is a good bet depending on how many people they want to vaccinate).

I'm convinced we'll get at least one working vaccine. All the noise coming from the people who would know is positive. It may not be a permanent solution - we may need follow up boosters - but it's better than the hellhole we're trapped in at the moment.

The rollout process can be accelerated by simply aiming to vaccinate the most vulnerable rather than everyone. West Africa did this with smallpox. By vaccinating only the most vulnerable 750,000 (out of a population of 12 million), they were able to eradicate smallpox both ahead of schedule & under budget in 1977.
 

El Gringo

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Anybody ever wonder why you don’t hear anything about cases in Africa?

they have very bad sanitation and healthcare services. People living in huts on top of each other and mix their drinking water with sewer water.

Africa should be a breeding pool for the China Virus. You’d think millions would be dead over there.

what countries are constantly getting criticized because of higher cases or deaths?
the USA and Europe.

What countries have the biggest impact in the free world ?
the USA and Europe

Covid seems to affect Europe and the USA most because they are the biggest opposition to China!
 
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Jin

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Anybody ever wonder why you don’t hear anything about cases in Africa?

they have very bad sanitation and healthcare services. People living in huts on top of each other and mix their drinking water with sewer water.

Africa should be a breeding pool for the China Virus. You’d think millions would be dead over there.

what countries are constantly getting criticized because of higher cases or deaths?
the USA and Europe.

What countries have the biggest impact in the free world ?
the USA and Europe

Covid seems to affect Europe and the USA most because they are the biggest opposition to China!

This is the 3rd time I’ve had to point this out to you:

The average age in Africa is 19 years old. 19 year olds don’t die from the virus.

You also cite sanitation which has nothing (very very little) to do with Covid transmission.

Why do you persist in making an invalid point when clear evidence has been presented to you?
 

DOOM

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A well-timed paper from the Aussies looking at the impact of entering the labour market during a downturn: The Career effects of labour market conditions at entry

- As with previous recessions, young people are going to take the brunt of the economic hit here. The covid class of 2020, much like the class of 2010, is in for a rough ride.

- 5% rise in youth unemployment is associated with an 8% decline in earnings & 3.5% decline in employment-to-population ratio. After 5 years, earnings still down 3.5% while employment-to-population ratio has recovered. Earnings don't recover until 10 years post-recession.

- Graduates impacted a lot more than those who didn't attend university due to an inability to find a good job match up for their skills. This leads to settling for work at lower production firms and/or human capital depreciation (the complete inability to find relevant work).

- Macro stimulus that allows young people to stay in work, or train to do something else, is a big help. As are reforms to allow more labour market mobility (the ability to switch jobs). Basically, the more dynamic your labour market the quicker you'll recover from this.

The younger generation is going to take a huge economic hit in order to protect their elders (covid poses no real threat to them directly). That needs to be recognized and, at some point soon, the favor should be returned.
Thanks for sharing! Appreciate the thorough research.
 

El Gringo

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This is the 3rd time I’ve had to point this out to you:

The average age in Africa is 19 years old. 19 year olds don’t die from the virus.

You also cite sanitation which has nothing (very very little) to do with Covid transmission.

Why do you persist in making an invalid point when clear evidence has been presented to you?
There are 1.4 billion people in Africa and only 40,000 deaths. Not everyone is 19 yrs old. I’m sure grandmas and grandpas exist there.

I also don’t believe all the deaths labeled as Covid is attributed to Covid in the USA. (Ex car accidents, shark attacks ) Numbers have been inflated to look worse.

the point being is that Covid is a BIOWEAPON used to weaken Chinas adversaries. Just look at correlation between their biggest adversaries and countries most affected by the China Virus

and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Democrats are complicit with the Chicoms
 
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MrRippedZilla

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Germany and France back in national lockdown. UK expected to follow (unless our PM rediscovers his balls). Data suggests that Spain, along with foolish tourists, are to blame for the 2nd wave in Europe.

On the plus side, W-shape can be observed in European stocks - that means buying opportunities again.
 

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