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  1. #461
    Elite dk8594's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    In the US, 3.28 million people filled for unemployment benefits this week - the highest number since records began in 1967. The biggest rises were seen in Pennsylvania (+378,908), Ohio (+187,784), and California (+186,809). Oh and don't forget - we've only just started.

    I'm a broken record at this point but it's worth repeating: Our economic decisions in response to this will result in a far greater human cost than the virus would ever be capable of producing by itself. The 1918-20 flue crisis resulted in a 6% global drop in GDP and an 8% drop in consumption. If we don't keep the damage below that level in 2020, it's because of political incompetence. Nothing more, nothing less.
    Did they mention the unemployment rate? I am trying to get a sense of magnitude ( last I could find was February - 3.5%), but donít have a sense of who they count in the denominator.


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  2. #462
    Veteran MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by dk8594 View Post
    Did they mention the unemployment rate? I am trying to get a sense of magnitude ( last I could find was February - 3.5%), but don’t have a sense of who they count in the denominator.
    Unemployment rate data will be out next Friday. It's projected to have gone up to 4% but smart money is on it being higher than that. Initial jobless claims was projected to be 1-1.1m, ended up being 3.28m so...yea.

    It's interesting to see the stock market rally in response though. If sustained, it's confirmation that the markets overreacted and the "bottom" is already gone. Big "if" on whether the rally will be sustained though. Long way to go in this battle.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; 03-26-2020 at 04:11 PM.
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  4. #463
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    Unemployment rate data will be out next Friday. It's projected to have gone up to 4% but smart money is on it being higher than that. Initial jobless claims was projected to be 1-1.1m, ended up being 3.28m so...yea.

    It's interesting to see the stock market rally in response though. If sustained, it's confirmation that the markets overreacted and the "bottom" is already gone. Big "if" on whether the rally will be sustained though. Long way to go in this battle.
    We received interesting guidance today. Seems some of the small business loans in the US are tied to your normal payroll levels. I’ll just say there’s strong incentives for businesses to keep people on payroll.

    Interesting angle though I have no idea how it’ll work out with revenues dropping.
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  6. #464
    Veteran MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    In the US, 3.28 million people filled for unemployment benefits this week - the highest number since records began in 1967. The biggest rises were seen in Pennsylvania (+378,908), Ohio (+187,784), and California (+186,809). Oh and don't forget - we've only just started.
    For this week, 6.648 million people filled for unemployment benefits - destroying the previous record set last week. That's around 10 million people who've lost their jobs over the past 2 weeks.

    The unemployment rate, data out tomorrow, will be closer to 10% vs the analysts forecast of 4% vs 3.5% for February. All of this indicates that the US will enter a recession. I've said from day 1 that it was unavoidable, globally, and I've seen nothing to indicate otherwise. It's called a global economic suicide pact for a reason.

    I will say that the $2.2 trillion package from the white house/congress has made these numbers worse. Bumping up payments to the unemployed to $600 per week for 4 months gives businesses an easy out. Especially when you're also willing to bail them out too - see United Airlines for example. Essentially, there is no reason for businesses losing revenue to keep workers on board. None at all. That could've been avoided with a more sensible policy approach and will result in the recovery post-virus being harder than it should've been but...you are where you are I guess. This is political incompetence, regardless of whether you're on the left or right.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; 04-02-2020 at 01:07 PM.
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  8. #465
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  9. #466
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    People looking for a quick fix are pretty gullible. There is nothing quick in finding remedies or cures. Its also asinine to believe Politicians are all of a sudden now scientists and know more than the scientific community. Wake up people!
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  11. #467
    Senior Member dragon1952's Avatar
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    Hope this hasn't already been posted. Thought it was pretty funny.c0f4738f0fbaa6a6815080ef7a24e0e54288c0e9_2_816x750.jpg

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  13. #468
    Veteran MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Unemployment rate comes in at 4.4% for March. Important to keep in mind that this does not include the last 2 weeks as the data was compiled up to and including March 12th. I didn't realize the data used to compile this number was this outdated so my prediction for 10% unemployment will be reflected in the rate next month.
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  15. #469
    Senior Member Blacktail's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by rawdeal View Post
    Did you turn the thermostat way down for that pic?
    nope they are always like that!

  16. #470
    Elite. DF's Avatar
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    I did apply and received a PPP loan. The loan amount is based on 2 - 2 1/2 months payroll. Terms for loan payback are a 2 year loan 1% interest, a 6 month deferment on payments. There is the possibility that the loan will be forgiven if you use as intended*. 75% toward payroll and 25% toward mortgage interest, rent, and utility costs over the 8 week period after the loan is made.



    Last edited by DF; 05-05-2020 at 09:06 AM.

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  18. #471
    Veteran MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    Unemployment rate comes in at 4.4% for March. Important to keep in mind that this does not include the last 2 weeks as the data was compiled up to and including March 12th. I didn't realize the data used to compile this number was this outdated so my prediction for 10% unemployment will be reflected in the rate next month.
    US unemployment rate came out today at 14.7%, which is ahead of my prediction from last month but below what the markets were fearing (15.5-16%). It translates to 20.5 million job losses according to the non-farm payrolls. All of this translates to that inevitable global recession that we talked about months ago. Inevitable due to the actions of politicians, not due to the virus.

    All the data tells me that I'm about 5% too optimistic across the board. Predicted 10% here vs 14.7% reality. Predicted 30% bottom for equity markets vs 35% reality (I feared a bigger drop at one point but central banks saved the day). So with that said, I predict a U-shaped recovery from here with a risk of a W-shape if politicians repeat their mistakes when, not if, the 2nd phase of infections/deaths hit.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; 05-08-2020 at 08:33 AM.
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  20. #472
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    US unemployment rate came out today at 14.7%, which is ahead of my prediction from last month but below what the markets were fearing (15.5-16%). It translates to 20.5 million job losses according to the non-farm payrolls. All of this translates to that inevitable global recession that we talked about months ago. Inevitable due to the actions of politicians, not due to the virus.

    All the data tells me that I'm about 5% too optimistic across the board. Predicted 10% here vs 14.7% reality. Predicted 30% bottom for equity markets vs 35% reality (I feared a bigger drop at one point but central banks saved the day). So with that said, I predict a U-shaped recovery from here with a risk of a W-shape if politicians repeat their mistakes when, not if, the 2nd phase of infections/deaths hit.
    And you know they'll be revised even lower. And this doesn't even account for "off the books" workers.

    That being said, I'm riding this stock market out until the shit hits the fan. It doesn't make sense, but I'm not going to fight it.

  21. #473
    Senior Moderator NbleSavage's Avatar
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    Just speaking fer myself, I'm still not of the mind that economics is the proper lense to view this situation from, as it leads to the inevitable mathematics of "How many people are we willing to take a chance of dying in order fer the markets to re-stabilize?".

    When this situation is viewed from the perspective of business is when politics gets involved - and again, just IMO, wrong lense to view the situation from. It's not a "Red State vs Blue State" issue (at least it shouldn't be to me) - it's a public health crises. This *COULD* be a common enemy to unite the US, and perhaps even countries around the world.

    The economic effects are interesting, but just my $.02 should take a back-seat to dramatically increasing testing (such that we can get a more accurate perspective on the scope and scale of the virus) and treatment (once we have data to support the number of sick people, we can get a more accurate profile of those who are typically affected & perhaps where they exposed which leads to better ideas around treatment / vaccines).

    Again just speaking fer myself, the politicizing of an act of nature (Yer a "weak cuck lib" if ye wear a mask or observe the quarantine - or yer a "bloodthirsty fascist slave" if ye opt to return to pre-Covid practices) is a symptom of how strongly divided the US is as a country right now.

    How about instead we turn the propaganda machines towards "We're all in this together - here's what we're going to do in order to save lives, both red and blue".
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  22. #474
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    Sorry Noble, wishful thinking. We're all in this together is dead. This is just reality now as even this crisis has proven the divide is real and pretty obvious it's not going to change anytime soon. Look around you, brother. People everywhere are using political bias when choosing what or who to believe.
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  24. #475
    Elite BigSwolePump's Avatar
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    Personally, I am still frustrated that we are still shut down for a virus where less than 2% of people who have even been diagnosed as having this shit are even sick and a only a .5% death rate. I use these figures very loosely because anyone with any sense of reason knows that much more people have this virus than have even been tested which makes the actual stats even lower and more favorable.

    Are you shitting me? The world population is 7.8 billion people and by the propaganda's own admission, there are just over 4 million total cases which includes 1.4 million people who have "recovered". This is .005% of the population who have ever even been infected. Fuk off!!

    Want a better prospective? OK!! USA population is 328 million and only 1.3 million total cases. Want the numbers? OK? Are you ready???? .003% of people in USA have been tested positive..But wait, there is more. .0002% of Americans have died of COVID. That is even using the shit propaganda numbers of which I believe less than half of the death numbers.

    Look, I get that older and those with weak immune systems should take precautions. The problem I see is that perfectly healthy people are being quarantined. WTF kind of ridiculous scare tactic agenda is this? Fuking Nazi type BS.

    On almost a daily basis, doctors are speaking out about the ridiculousness of this quarantine, the fact that 95% of hospitals are empty and they have more supplies than they even need.

    What is even more idiotic is that medical care facilities get paid extra by the government if they put patients on ventilators and prove that a death was caused by COVID. Again, all over the internet we are seeing cases where a patient dies of a heart attack or other non-virus related death reported by the family and on the death certificate it is labeled as COVID.

    My daughter in law(RN) told me about a case this past weak where a patient died of a massive stroke and when she called it in, the first 3 questions asked where COVID related questions. No muthafukka it wasn't!!!


    Don't even get me started on the political BS. How the fuk do you make more money on unemployment than working your fuking job?!!!??? Why would lazy ass Americans want the country to open back up? They don't!!

    What about this new BS about not having to pay rent? How the fuk are you going to live in my properties for free?!! Businesses are losing money, some are literally going under with no help from the government who is unlawfully keeping them from functioning while worthless fuks are getting paid more money than they made working!!

    What about going to the store and being herded like fuking cows in whatever direction they see fit in order for me to get food to feed your family? Jews and concentration camps come to mind. Fuk that. I walk wherever I please and in whatever direction I please. Stop me..I dare you!

    This fear-mongering is ridiculous!!

    With that said, COVID19 quarantine is a sham...CHANGE MY MIND!!! and for fuksake, please don't use the quarantine as an argument as to why there are less deaths or I will be forced to bring up Finland and I don't want to do that...
    "Don't count the days, make the days count" ~Muhammad Ali~

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  26. #476
    Senior Moderator NbleSavage's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BigSwolePump View Post
    Personally, I am still frustrated that we are still shut down for a virus where less than 2% of people who have even been diagnosed as having this shit are even sick and a only a .5% death rate. I use these figures very loosely because anyone with any sense of reason knows that much more people have this virus than have even been tested which makes the actual stats even lower and more favorable.

    Are you shitting me? The world population is 7.8 billion people and by the propaganda's own admission, there are just over 4 million total cases which includes 1.4 million people who have "recovered". This is .005% of the population who have ever even been infected. Fuk off!!

    Want a better prospective? OK!! USA population is 328 million and only 1.3 million total cases. Want the numbers? OK? Are you ready???? .003% of people in USA have been tested positive..But wait, there is more. .0002% of Americans have died of COVID. That is even using the shit propaganda numbers of which I believe less than half of the death numbers.

    Look, I get that older and those with weak immune systems should take precautions. The problem I see is that perfectly healthy people are being quarantined. WTF kind of ridiculous scare tactic agenda is this? Fuking Nazi type BS.

    On almost a daily basis, doctors are speaking out about the ridiculousness of this quarantine, the fact that 95% of hospitals are empty and they have more supplies than they even need.

    What is even more idiotic is that medical care facilities get paid extra by the government if they put patients on ventilators and prove that a death was caused by COVID. Again, all over the internet we are seeing cases where a patient dies of a heart attack or other non-virus related death reported by the family and on the death certificate it is labeled as COVID.

    My daughter in law(RN) told me about a case this past weak where a patient died of a massive stroke and when she called it in, the first 3 questions asked where COVID related questions. No muthafukka it wasn't!!!


    Don't even get me started on the political BS. How the fuk do you make more money on unemployment than working your fuking job?!!!??? Why would lazy ass Americans want the country to open back up? They don't!!

    What about this new BS about not having to pay rent? How the fuk are you going to live in my properties for free?!! Businesses are losing money, some are literally going under with no help from the government who is unlawfully keeping them from functioning while worthless fuks are getting paid more money than they made working!!

    What about going to the store and being herded like fuking cows in whatever direction they see fit in order for me to get food to feed your family? Jews and concentration camps come to mind. Fuk that. I walk wherever I please and in whatever direction I please. Stop me..I dare you!

    This fear-mongering is ridiculous!!

    With that said, COVID19 quarantine is a sham...CHANGE MY MIND!!! and for fuksake, please don't use the quarantine as an argument as to why there are less deaths or I will be forced to bring up Finland and I don't want to do that...
    I hear ye, Mate. Who though benefits from such a mis-information campaign, if that's what it is? If the scope and severity of the virus is deliberately being exaggerated, by who and to what end?
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  27. #477
    Elite BigSwolePump's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by NbleSavage View Post
    I hear ye, Mate. Who though benefits from such a mis-information campaign, if that's what it is? If the scope and severity of the virus is deliberately being exaggerated, by who and to what end?
    That's exactly my point brother.

    It's gotten so far out of hand that it's become political.

    My biggest fear is what the hell else they will come up with to take away more freedoms at this point.
    "Don't count the days, make the days count" ~Muhammad Ali~

  28. #478
    Elite Bro Bundy's Avatar
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    this is all a part of the luciferian satanic child fukking plan..Can I prove it no

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  30. #479
    Senior Moderator NbleSavage's Avatar
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    Honestly, there are days lately when I'm ready for the revolution. "Civil discourse" clearly isn't going to solve whats wrong in the US. People are so far entrenched in their thinking - more so than I've seen since coming to this country more than 30 years ago.

    There are days when I just want to invite everyone to suit-up in a red shirt or a blue shirt, strap on kit, meet in the middle somewhere and see who's got the biggest d1ck.

    Let the victor write the history.
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    Originally Posted by NbleSavage View Post
    Honestly, there are days lately when I'm ready for the revolution. "Civil discourse" clearly isn't going to solve whats wrong in the US. People are so far entrenched in their thinking - more so than I've seen since coming to this country more than 30 years ago.

    There are days when I just want to invite everyone to suit-up in a red shirt or a blue shirt, strap on kit, meet in the middle somewhere and see who's got the biggest d1ck.

    Let the victor write the history.
    Itís strange scrolling down my google news feed. Every headline includes an allegation of some sort of incompetence and the stories are editorial in nature or are of the he said / she said variety.They arenít informative; they are written to mimic the script of a soap opera will villains and heroines.

    I donít blame the news outlets. They are producers of a product and are are producing exactly what the market had a demand for. For better or worse our lives have become so easy that that we have to fight against the trivial to feel alive.

    The only problem with the US is that for most of us our lives have become so easy that we have the luxury of worrying about the lives of others and how they choose to live them.


    Fight against something and you focus on the thing you hate. Fight for something and you focus on the thing you love. - Simon Sinek

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