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  1. #581
    Senior Member joeyirish777's Avatar
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    I passed by a guy while on a trail run this morning. He was wearing a hoodie, sweatpants, and of course a face mask. I thought, "another dumbass." I go down the trail 200 yards and I run into a few girls who were yelling at me asking where we were.. I told them and asked why... they described the guy I just passed by and they said he attacked this girl who was standing there in shock with a red face. Naturally I sprinted down the trail to get the sob but he was gone. This was around 11 a.m. btw. Broad ****ing daylight.

    Some Morales of the story... never neglect cardio.. 'normalizing' masks are incentivizing crime, and make it nearly impossible to convict someone, and many more problems... also the nonsense in this country is sparking rage and psychotic behaviors in people..

    Protect your loved ones now more then ever people.
    Last edited by joeyirish777; 10-21-2020 at 06:09 PM.

  2. #582
    The Sage of Science MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    2020 Covid recession vs 08-09 recession vs 1929 depression:
    industrialproduction.jpg

    - The initial downward turn in 2020 was far greater & faster than the other two due to the fact that the pandemic caused both a supply & demand shock. 08-09 & 1929 triggered demand shocks but their was no interruption to supply.

    - The speed of recovery is directly correlated to the level of fiscal & monetary support given by govts and central banks. The reason the 1929 depression was not simply a recession, and lasted far longer than necessary, is due to the restrictive fiscal & monetary attitudes of the time.

    - Why has the 2020 recovery been quicker than in 08-09? Because our banks are in better shape. After 08-09, they were impaired and unable to expand credit, which prolonged the recovery phase. Basically, we had to take the time to fix them before a sustainable recovery was possible.

    China (OECD numbers but, as with everything China, take it with a grain of salt) vs EU vs USA:
    euvsusvschina.jpg

    - Risk of a W-shaped recovery, rather than a V, is clearly present. If we see a return to national lockdowns combined with a lack of further fiscal/monetary support, then the W will take over. If not, then probably more of a square-root until we get a vaccine in the middle of next year (yes, that's my bet).

    The big takeaway from all this: with continued fiscal/monetary support, the economy has the capacity to recover very quickly once the fears surrounding Covid are gone.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; 10-23-2020 at 08:14 AM.
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  3. #583
    E-Fighter Extraordinaire Joliver's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    2020 Covid recession vs 08-09 recession vs 1929 depression:
    industrialproduction.jpg

    - The initial downward turn in 2020 was far greater & faster than the other two due to the fact that the pandemic caused both a supply & demand shock. 08-09 & 1929 triggered demand shocks but their was no interruption to supply.

    - The speed of recovery is directly correlated to the level of fiscal & monetary support given by govts and central banks. The reason the 1929 depression was not simply a recession, and lasted far longer than necessary, is due to the restrictive fiscal & monetary attitudes of the time.

    - Why has the 2020 recovery been quicker than in 08-09? Because our banks are in better shape. After 08-09, they were impaired and unable to expand credit, which prolonged the recovery phase. Basically, we had to take the time to fix them before a sustainable recovery was possible.

    China (OECD numbers but, as with everything China, take it with a grain of salt) vs EU vs USA:
    euvsusvschina.jpg

    - Risk of a W-shaped recovery, rather than a V, is clearly present. If we see a return to national lockdowns combined with a lack of further fiscal/monetary support, then the W will take over. If not, then probably more of a square-root until we get a vaccine in the middle of next year (yes, that's my bet).

    The big takeaway from all this: with continued fiscal/monetary support, the economy has the capacity to recover very quickly once the fears surrounding Covid are gone.
    Maybe economic indicators will show a recovery, but that's tone deaf. Mom & pop shops and medium/ small business won't ever recover. Mega-corp that was not subjected to authoritarian rule gobbled up the market share. Standard of living won't follow this "recovery" on the way up.

    And not for nothing, but monetary policy is responsible for '29 and '08. It didn't solve anything. It ended because of war, or more "quantitative easing" after a convenient banking shakeout or tax dollar bailout.

    Weimar germany period newspaper article: "investors can buy a farm or a factory for a few US dollars."

    This is crony-capitalism wealth redistribution....just like it was then....just like it will be next time.

    It's a paper recovery, at best.
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  5. #584
    The Sage of Science MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Joliver View Post
    And not for nothing, but monetary policy is responsible for '29 and '08. It didn't solve anything. It ended because of war, or more "quantitative easing" after a convenient banking shakeout or tax dollar bailout.

    This is crony-capitalism wealth redistribution....just like it was then....just like it will be next time.

    It's a paper recovery, at best.
    When it comes to fiscal & monetary policy, 29 (non-interventionism) is the total opposite of 08 (intervene).
    The depression of 29 did indeed end because of the war. Specifically, thanks to the fiscal stimulus necessary to prepare for the war. Had that stimulus arrived earlier, then you may not have had a depression at all.
    Without banking reform (including tax dollar bailout), you weren't going to get any sort of recovery in 08. It was a necessity. QE, I'm with you, has overinflated the value of pretty much everything and goes with the "paper recovery" analogy.

    It's only "crony-capitalism wealth distribution" if you don't know how to participate and benefit from it.
    I was a broke graduate around 08-09. I borrowed 25 grand from my grandfather (under the false guise of funding post-grad studies) and put it all into the market. That was the first step to me achieving the financial independence that I have today. People who were smart enough to do the same thing earlier this year would've seen the same results, but quicker.
    This is capitalism at its best. No "crony" in sight.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; 10-23-2020 at 12:19 PM.
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  6. #585
    E-Fighter Extraordinaire Joliver's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    When it comes to fiscal & monetary policy, 29 (non-interventionism) is the total opposite of 08 (intervene).
    The depression of 29 did indeed end because of the war. Specifically, thanks to the fiscal stimulus necessary to prepare for the war. Had that stimulus arrived earlier, then you may not have had a depression at all.
    Without banking reform (including tax dollar bailout), you weren't going to get any sort of recovery in 08. It was a necessity. QE, I'm with you, has overinflated the value of pretty much everything and goes with the "paper recovery" analogy.

    It's only "crony-capitalism wealth distribution" if you don't know how to participate and benefit from it.
    I was a broke graduate around 08-09. I borrowed 25 grand from my grandfather (under the false guise of funding post-grad studies) and put it all into the market. That was the first step to me achieving the financial independence that I have today. People who were smart enough to do the same thing earlier this year would've seen the same results, but quicker.
    This is capitalism at its best. No "crony" in sight.
    “The new law (federal reserve--the PRIVATE entity that controls the nation's money supply) will create inflation whenever the trusts want inflation. From now on depressions will be scientifically created.” --Charles A. Lindbergh

    You need to read "the creature from Jekyll island" and "money for nothing." Between 1923 and 1929, the Federal Reserve inflated the money supply by 62%. When JP morgan published the "insolvency rumor" that forced smaller financial institutions to make margin calls to stay solvent and maintain Reg T , the markets sold off. Hence thats why I said "buy a farm or factory for a few dollars." Most couldn't...it was a bank "shakeout." Morgan and Big Bank Inc consolidated their iron grip on US finance.

    22% of every US dollar ever created by the fed was created this year. For those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.

    Also you say it's only "crony-capitalism" if you don't know how to participate. Patently false. There are quite a few people that know me personally on this forum. I'm a serial entrepreneur. I've owned 4 different businesses in 3 different industries and been successful throughout. So trust me when I say I started a business on a major junction at an interstate. It was coop power, municipal water, county sewer. They drained my lifeblood. Several people on UG probably remember me bitching over a $75k last minute impact fee two weeks before I opened. I gritted my teeth and paid it. Walmart moved in later...they got 30 years of tax abatement....publix got the same deal. I got ****ed....and you would have too.

    Covid-19 shows up. I'm ordered to close. Walmart, publix....every major corp stays open. I go to jail for opening. I laid off everyone. I won't reopen.

    I'm not some day trader playing capitalist...I built something with blood sweat and tears. I had employees with benefits and I paid a fair wage. Their lives were upended. So don't tell me about capitalism vs crony-capitalism vs socialism. I pink slipped people, sold the assets, and walked away never to reopen just like a lot of other small businesses did. I don't know many people that will volunteer to do it again. I won't. That's economic contraction via government intervention on the small...not the large lobby corps. CRONY-CAPITALISM.

    And I know everything is hyperinflated. I'm a commodities and real estate guy. I've watched the dollar shit and buying power fall. I didn't actually make money on gold....it's just that gold is always going to be gold and the dollar is going to be trash.
    Stroking out on the toilet = gay. Stroking out on the platform = legend. --DYS

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  8. #586
    Elite transcend2007's Avatar
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    Pretty graphs aside ... decisions are being made for solely political reasons (in the US) .. anyone who does not see this is in denial ... the blue states are virtually locked down ... while many red states are completely open and have been since May...

    Interesting stat ... let's see if anyone knows why it is so ... nearly 80,000 US military have contracted the corona-virus ... 103 have died ...(yes Ripped - even those in New York state survived) ... for those of you attempting to do the math that is 0.0012 .... approximately one-tenth of 1% ... does that sound like a 3% to 5% death rate to you like heard was likely on this very thread of one like it back in March .... the obviously reason for the 1/10th fraction of 1% survival rate in the US military IS AGE ... the death rate under 70 is actually very low .. of course you will not hear this on the news or any where else ... you will get people arguing everything else ... nearly all unrelated to what's important ... stop the lock downs ... open all schools and business immediately .. the hospitals know how to treat it ... time to stop acting like scarred children ... seriously ... when did the world (especial the United States) turn into a complete pvssy ... if my numbers up .. fvck it ... but don't destroy the country any further ...
    HRT for life!

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  10. #587
    Elite Bro Bundy's Avatar
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    I’m in nj and nyc right now .. I don’t recognize this place any more

  11. #588
    Palestinean Prophet Yaya's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Bro Bundy View Post
    I’m in nj and nyc right now .. I don’t recognize this place any more
    My buddy just went to NYC.. he had an actual in person meeting.. he said its a digusting sad situation
    There's nothing like a slice of tiller to get your day started -PFM

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  12. #589
    The Sage of Science MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by transcend2007 View Post
    Pretty graphs aside ... decisions are being made for solely political reasons (in the US) .. anyone who does not see this is in denial ... the blue states are virtually locked down ... while many red states are completely open and have been since May...

    Interesting stat ... let's see if anyone knows why it is so ... nearly 80,000 US military have contracted the corona-virus ... 103 have died ...(yes Ripped - even those in New York state survived) ... for those of you attempting to do the math that is 0.0012 .... approximately one-tenth of 1% ... does that sound like a 3% to 5% death rate to you like heard was likely on this very thread of one like it back in March .... the obviously reason for the 1/10th fraction of 1% survival rate in the US military IS AGE ... the death rate under 70 is actually very low .. of course you will not hear this on the news or any where else ... you will get people arguing everything else ... nearly all unrelated to what's important ... stop the lock downs ... open all schools and business immediately .. the hospitals know how to treat it ... time to stop acting like scarred children ... seriously ... when did the world (especial the United States) turn into a complete pvssy ... if my numbers up .. fvck it ... but don't destroy the country any further ...
    Is it really that difficult to make this post without the passive aggressive bullshit in bold? FYI, I made the same point about the mortality rate in May to argue against further national lockdowns.
    Proud misanthropist.

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  14. #590
    Moderator-San Jin's Avatar
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    We still have never had mandatory lock downs and have not had any cases in our area. At all.

    Life looks the same as it did Pre Covid, only everybody wears masks, not just people who know they are sick (with flu, cold etc).

    From what I can gauge culture weighs heavily into how easily Covid can transmit from country to country. That’s the main difference I see.


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    You are entitled to your informed opinion.
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  16. #591
    The Sage of Science MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    From what I can gauge culture weighs heavily into how easily Covid can transmit from country to country. That’s the main difference I see.
    Yup. Same thing I noticed when analyzing the data that showed no correlation whatsoever between testing & "controlling" the virus. Picked up a geographical correlation, driven by culture, on covid control though. Risk-adverse populations, Japan being a leader here, are doing fine. Risk takers, like the UK & US, not so much.

    Here in the UK, the politicians & media portrayed test & trace as the miracle cure. Then we got data showing that it wasn't working because public adherence to the rules (self-isolating when testing positive, etc) was super low. All the testing in the world can't compensate for people not taking basic precautionary steps. Who knew?
    Proud misanthropist.

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  18. #592
    Elite The Tater's Avatar
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    Good Lord this ****ing thread is depressing. Hang in there folks.

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    Elite CJ275's Avatar
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    Zilla is Blue now, what the heck is blue?!?

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    Elite Iron1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by CJ275 View Post
    Zilla is Blue now, what the heck is blue?!?
    Pretty sure that's Super Saiyajin level that's only ever existed in theory before today.
    My posts are for entertainment purposes only

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    Originally Posted by Iron1 View Post
    Pretty sure that's Super Saiyajin level that's only ever existed in theory before today.
    He's ascended to the heavens to accompany the gods.

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  25. #596
    The Sage of Science MrRippedZilla's Avatar
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    A well-timed paper from the Aussies looking at the impact of entering the labour market during a downturn: The Career effects of labour market conditions at entry

    - As with previous recessions, young people are going to take the brunt of the economic hit here. The covid class of 2020, much like the class of 2010, is in for a rough ride.

    - 5% rise in youth unemployment is associated with an 8% decline in earnings & 3.5% decline in employment-to-population ratio. After 5 years, earnings still down 3.5% while employment-to-population ratio has recovered. Earnings don't recover until 10 years post-recession.

    - Graduates impacted a lot more than those who didn't attend university due to an inability to find a good job match up for their skills. This leads to settling for work at lower production firms and/or human capital depreciation (the complete inability to find relevant work).

    - Macro stimulus that allows young people to stay in work, or train to do something else, is a big help. As are reforms to allow more labour market mobility (the ability to switch jobs). Basically, the more dynamic your labour market the quicker you'll recover from this.

    The younger generation is going to take a huge economic hit in order to protect their elders (covid poses no real threat to them directly). That needs to be recognized and, at some point soon, the favor should be returned.
    Last edited by MrRippedZilla; Today at 09:17 AM.
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