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  1. #25
    Moderator-San Jin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NbleSavage View Post
    ^^ Stay safe & healthy, Mate ^^

    Bit worried about ye there, tbh. Ye got a "Go to Hell" plan? Best to shelter in place or is there a bug-out option?
    We live in big valley. Two other houses. Three elderly folks. We aren’t able to go back to the States currently. Nor would we want to.

    I foresee the civil unrest there as more of a threat than the idiocy here.

    If things got real crazy we are at the foot of a Mountain. I have a tent

    these are all three houses. Pretty ideal for this type of crisis. Happy to shelter in place. Plus home gym

    We live on an island of knowledge surrounded
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    As our island of knowledge grows,
    so too does the shore of our ignorance.


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  3. #26
    Elite transcend2007's Avatar
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    I am curious Ripped .. what healthcare experience to you have ...?

    If cities with large populations did next to nothing as you are suggesting their heath care systems would be overrun with sick people in a very short time and people would literally be dying in the streets or in hospital halls the way they are in Italy today (they actually too slowly and unfortunately were even closer to China with many migrant workers - plus they did NOT implement a Chines travel ban like the US did early).

    The idea of isolating only those at risk is not enough ... because all the younger healthier people would still be infecting high risk people (and how would anyone under 70 know if they were at risk) ... let's be honest if this was only limited to the elderly would this really be getting world wide attention ... the answer is no ... the only why to manage a pandemic is to fvching manage entire populations ...

    In reality Morgan Stanley nor anyone else has a clue what the overall outcome to this situation is going to be ... a number of factors will impact the end result that are simply unknown today ... the #1 factor being a viable treatment coming out in the next 30 days to 60 days ... and if that does happen the people saying we should have done nothing are even more wrong as at the very least things have been slowed down considerably over having done nothing (and the economic consequence will be less) .... if no treatments come out for 6 months or more (which is unlikely) then the delay the spread strategy could end up having the economy crippling effect you've mentioned ... with no one escaping the financial burdens caused ....

    So the question is this ... will there be a treatment for Covid-19 in the near term .... or not ... again this is why they call it a crisis ... no one knows the future ... but taking preventive steps does seem to be the correct course of action .. and if the treatment does come out in April and/or May its very likely the economic devastation will be avoided ... no can say we do not live in "interesting times" ...


    Quote Originally Posted by MrRippedZilla View Post
    I'd answer yes to your first 5 questions.

    Politicians are always short sighted and always lie/hide the long term ramifications of their actions. Example: The Italian treasury claims it will only lose 3% of its GDP this year and that everything could return to normal in late April. Morgan Stanley says Italy will lose 33% of its GDP this year and nothing is returning to normal anytime soon. One of those two is flat out lying and I don't think it's MS.

    The UK, my country, has been more honest about its approach than most. You won't hear any of that 2 week/1 month lockdown nonsense here. It's 12-16 weeks to see if we can get things under control but the measures in place are likely to last all year. The luxury of honesty from our politicians stems from the fact that our PM won a comfortable majority in the Dec election and is safe for 4 years. He can afford to be brutally honest - most politicians in most countries can't.

    My main issue with our approach is that we're determined to pretend that the virus is an equal opportunity disease despite the fact that the data clearly shows that it's particularly deadly to the old & ill. We shouldn't all have to suffer the same economic consequences to combat it. Example: why ban public gatherings altogether vs isolating the old & ill only? Closing schools vs isolating the old & ill only. And on & on it goes. We, and most of the rest of the world, need to be more targeted in our measures to preserve ourselves over the long term. I suspect, and hope, we will be as the year progresses but we certainly aren't right now and hence....staring into the face of economic catastrophe.

    By the way, I know isolating the elderly and ill comes with its own set of nasty side effects. But it's absolutely necessary if you want to fight this battle. It's a judgement call. By isolating the elderly from life, do we do more harm than good here? Tough question. I have no answer.
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  4. #27
    Moderator-San Jin's Avatar
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    An OpEd praising Japan’s “model” handling of the pandemic. As if Japan is over the hump.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion.../#.XnoejaSRWEf


    A clueless, self absorbed people who think world affairs don’t concern them.

    We live on an island of knowledge surrounded
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  6. #28
    Moderator German89's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    An OpEd praising Japan’s “model” handling of the pandemic. As if Japan is over the hump.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion.../#.XnoejaSRWEf


    A clueless, self absorbed people who think world affairs don’t concern them.
    Do you think. The citizens of japan will naturally self isolate?

    I can't sit and read the article.
    Well, to be fair...

    It's All For The 'Gram

  7. #29
    Moderator-San Jin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by German89 View Post
    Do you think. The citizens of japan will naturally self isolate?

    I can't sit and read the article.
    No.

    People don’t think for themselves here. It’s discouraged.

    They follow directions. There are no directions to isolate.

    people
    must think we’re crazy.

    We live on an island of knowledge surrounded
    by a sea of ignorance.
    As our island of knowledge grows,
    so too does the shore of our ignorance.


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  9. #30
    Moderator German89's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    No.

    People don’t think for themselves here. It’s discouraged.

    They follow directions. There are no directions to isolate.

    people
    must think we’re crazy.
    We are crazy
    Well, to be fair...

    It's All For The 'Gram

  10. #31
    Senior Moderator Spongy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    An OpEd praising Japan’s “model” handling of the pandemic. As if Japan is over the hump.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion.../#.XnoejaSRWEf


    A clueless, self absorbed people who think world affairs don’t concern them.
    The American media is also singing Japan's praises for how they are handling the pandemic. It's insane.
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  12. #32
    Elite Beezy's Avatar
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    Japan: doing it wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    An OpEd praising Japanís ďmodelĒ handling of the pandemic. As if Japan is over the hump.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion.../#.XnoejaSRWEf


    A clueless, self absorbed people who think world affairs donít concern them.
    They only have around 5% of the confirmed cases that NY state has, but half the deaths.
    Is that from underreporting confirmed cases, or more high risk citizens?

    *scratch that, they only have 43 deaths
    Last edited by Beezy; 03-25-2020 at 12:43 PM.

  13. #33
    Moderator-San Jin's Avatar
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    So......the day after the IOC insists on postponing the Olympics:

    all of a sudden: https://japantoday.com/category/nati...mpant-in-japan

    Finally we can take action to save lives.

    Oh, first there has to be a panel formed. Then everybody has to agree. Then the PM may be given emergency powers.

    The bureaucracy and stupidity is mind boggling.

    Off to Costco tomorrow for a final round before shit hits the fan here.

    We live on an island of knowledge surrounded
    by a sea of ignorance.
    As our island of knowledge grows,
    so too does the shore of our ignorance.


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  15. #34
    Elite Beezy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jin View Post
    So......the day after the IOC insists on postponing the Olympics:

    all of a sudden: https://japantoday.com/category/nati...mpant-in-japan

    Finally we can take action to save lives.

    Oh, first there has to be a panel formed. Then everybody has to agree. Then the PM may be given emergency powers.

    The bureaucracy and stupidity is mind boggling.

    Off to Costco tomorrow for a final round before shit hits the fan here.
    Iíll be happy to share all the canned ravioli in my basement if the shit decides not to hit the fan here.

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  17. #35
    Senior Moderator NbleSavage's Avatar
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    It's fascinating in a train wreck sorta way to see the two ends of the spectrum forming.

    Ye have the 'Virus Deniers' who seem to be primarily interested in getting the labor force back to work and in using the media to sell a narrative that the virus isn't as bad as it seems, that only the elderly & already sick people are at risk, that it will all be over in a month due to warm weather / an as-yet not identified vaccine or antidote / a level of immunity achieved, etc. I would include the wealthy in this category, as they clearly have a vested interest in getting labor back to work ASAP. These same people are the ones who seem to be ok with the notion that if a couple percentage of the population have to die such that their country can get back to work, that its an acceptable outcome.

    Then ye have the 'Doomsday Preppers' who seem to be relishing in this situation after having accumulated a lifetime of MREs, bottled water, toilet paper (?!), guns & ammo and like to speak of how we must expect the government will quarantine everybody and close all businesses (grocery stores, pharmacies) - not just 'unessential ones' - for the next 6-12-18 mos and take great pleasure in letting it be known how they'll turn ye away when ye inevitably come begging fer water at their shelter-in-place fortress. I'm including the Costco TP Hoarders in this bracket - they may be late to the 'Prepper' Party, but they've cleary voted with their wallet and are expecting the worst.

    I'm in the middle. I think a near-term self-imposed quarantine makes sense, but that we need to keep grocery stores and pharmacies open and well-stocked so as to avoid creating a mass panic in addition to making sure people don't have to worry about where their next meal comes from or whether they'll be able to get their meds. If people would be willing to respect this approach (I'm looking at ye, Florida spring breakers) I could see it being sustainable for months - perhaps long enough for either a vaccine to be developed and distributed at scale or fer enough immunity to be gained (we'll need more testing of course) such that the virus burns itself out.

    Rushing people back to work while we don't know who is infected and who isn't seems very irresponsible. Military imposed quarantine complete with no access to food or meds (how is that even sustainable in the short term?) seems likely to breed riots and nationwide panic.

    IMO, this is going to be on the people of each country to act reasonably and to insist their leaders don't take a heavy-handed approach towards either end of the spectrum. It's the people of any nation who are supposed to have the power. Good time to remind our political leaders of that.
    "So make ya move and plead the Fifth cuz' ya can't plead the First..."
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  19. #36
    Elite Beezy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NbleSavage View Post
    It's fascinating in a train wreck sorta way to see the two ends of the spectrum forming.

    Ye have the 'Virus Deniers' who seem to be primarily interested in getting the labor force back to work and in using the media to sell a narrative that the virus isn't as bad as it seems, that only the elderly & already sick people are at risk, that it will all be over in a month due to warm weather / an as-yet not identified vaccine or antidote / a level of immunity achieved, etc. I would include the wealthy in this category, as they clearly have a vested interest in getting labor back to work ASAP. These same people are the ones who seem to be ok with the notion that if a couple percentage of the population have to die such that their country can get back to work, that its an acceptable outcome.

    Then ye have the 'Doomsday Preppers' who seem to be relishing in this situation after having accumulated a lifetime of MREs, bottled water, toilet paper (?!), guns & ammo and like to speak of how we must expect the government will quarantine everybody and close all businesses (grocery stores, pharmacies) - not just 'unessential ones' - for the next 6-12-18 mos and take great pleasure in letting it be known how they'll turn ye away when ye inevitably come begging fer water at their shelter-in-place fortress. I'm including the Costco TP Hoarders in this bracket - they may be late to the 'Prepper' Party, but they've cleary voted with their wallet and are expecting the worst.

    I'm in the middle. I think a near-term self-imposed quarantine makes sense, but that we need to keep grocery stores and pharmacies open and well-stocked so as to avoid creating a mass panic in addition to making sure people don't have to worry about where their next meal comes from or whether they'll be able to get their meds. If people would be willing to respect this approach (I'm looking at ye, Florida spring breakers) I could see it being sustainable for months - perhaps long enough for either a vaccine to be developed and distributed at scale or fer enough immunity to be gained (we'll need more testing of course) such that the virus burns itself out.

    Rushing people back to work while we don't know who is infected and who isn't seems very irresponsible. Military imposed quarantine complete with no access to food or meds (how is that even sustainable in the short term?) seems likely to breed riots and nationwide panic.

    IMO, this is going to be on the people of each country to act reasonably and to insist their leaders don't take a heavy-handed approach towards either end of the spectrum. It's the people of any nation who are supposed to have the power. Good time to remind our political leaders of that.
    I know a lot of people, and a few businesses that can not afford a few months of this.
    One local small business owner near me, a new construction plumbing outfit of around 35 employees, listed his company for sale and said he has about six weeks to sell it before the doors close.
    I donít know what the answer is, but economically speaking, a few months of this canít be it.
    It may be financial Darwinism playing out for heavily leveraged business and households, but Iím not sure thatís going to kill/destroy less families than getting back to work with heavy health precautions.

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