mediocre1645
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Please don't use the Cals you're estimating to have burned to offset with food. There's no way in hell you're burning 500-600 Cals in 30 mins on an elliptical.
Even if that number were cut in half, I'd still say that it was too high.
It's fine to track output over time, based upon those numbers, but for the love of God PLEASE don't eat that much to offset it, or you'll end up being a fat ass.
I agree, the machines overestimate significantly, but I don't think by double. Check out the post above where I discussed this in depth. The third number I list when I report cals burned is from this study: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/figure/10.1080/02640410470001730089?scroll=top&needAccess=true (you can find a pdf with a google search, with no figures). They used fancy machines, VO2 measurements, etc on a baseline group, then corrected for unknown VO2 to make up a VO2-independent model and tested that against a another group. Authors call it accurate, but there's still uncertainty (on order of 5-20% depending on how uncertainty is determined). It's an old study, but that model is still used as a standard in more recent studies. One paper used early machine learning (2012) to refine it, and actually showed it under-reported expenditure for a test group. Keep in mind, my average HR is about 150 bpm for these sessions, so it is fairly high intensity.
In any case, as you suggest I don't use these numbers for anything more than tracking. Even though lots of diet/fitness experts recommend changing cals in a day based on work completed, personally I find it easier to eat near the same numbers every day and then get workouts in when I can (busy life) - too complicated otherwise. The one caveat being that if I do a legit run or something (>60 minutes or >6 mile), I'll let myself splurge a bit the rest of the day.
I'm aiming for 5+ elliptical/cardio sessions (not including jiu jitsu) per week. As one gets more adapted, the machine numbers and model numbers diverge more and more. At least for the elliptical workouts, I'm arbitrarily starting at 25 minutes and adding 2.5 minutes per week to counter this. I'm guessing around weeks 4-6 I'll have to jump more than 2.5 minutes per session to keep at the same rate of fat loss (although I'll also be lowering cals at some point so maybe not).