Covid Exit Strategy

Jin · Mar 19, 2020

Nobody has a great one currently.

Bottom line:

with a virus with this R0 value we need 75% of our population to be immune in order for the virus to stop spreading. This will cause the R0 to drop to under 1.

That means either
A) they have antibodies; have recovered
or
B) they are inoculated.

We likely won’t have a vaccine ready for public use in 2020.

Quarantines only work if they are maintained.

We cannot maintain a national lockdown for the rest of the year.

China has seemingly stopped the virus but a second wave of infections in all but assured once the lockdown is suspended. They are headed for “back to business” soon.

Britain’s strategy is to lockdown the elderly population for 4 months (tentative amount of time) and let the virus burn through the younger population. Hoping to build herd immunity while protecting the most vulnerable.

Japan’s strategy so far has been to pretend everything is ok and make getting a test almost impossible.

We’re in a pickle. There are no easy answers.

This is what governments have to balance. Different strategies will result in different outcomes. No telling whose strategy is best at this point.

Sicwun88 · Mar 19, 2020

Continue to live like everyday is your last!
I'm over all this Corona nonsense, besides the virus itself,all the media is wearing down everyone's well being,i agree everyone needs to be informed,
Yet all the media & gossip is becoming a sickness of its own!

NbleSavage · Mar 19, 2020

Tough to take what China shares with the rest of the world at face value, but they'll be an interesting canary in a coal mine as to that 2nd wave.

The UK's approach is as good as any: lockdown the at-risk population, build immunity with the healthier younger folks and use what we learn from them in developing the vaccine for the older folks.

In the US, I've been expecting a lockdown this week - hasn't happened yet, but my guess is once testing is more readily available and the real number of infected is known (or close to it) the govt's hand will be forced. Just speculation on my part obviously.

German89 · Mar 19, 2020

I like Japan's plan

Flyingdragon · Mar 19, 2020

Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media. Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens. Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters. Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.

If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device. If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out. Its really that simple!

BigSwolePump · Mar 19, 2020

Flyingdragon said:
Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media. Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens. Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters. Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.

If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device. If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out. Its really that simple!

Shut you mouth with those facts:32 (18):

It way more fun to to watch tv and follow media narrative.

Uncle manny · Mar 19, 2020

Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....

DieYoungStrong · Mar 19, 2020

Flyingdragon said:
Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media. Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens. Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters. Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.

If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device. If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out. Its really that simple!

exactly why socialism or authoritarian govt is not the answer to anything. Govt sucks at doing just about anything.

NbleSavage · Mar 19, 2020

DieYoungStrong said:
exactly why socialism or authoritarian govt is not the answer to anything. Govt sucks at doing just about anything.

I love to debate the possibilities of an anarchist society as much as the next guy, but I think the near-looting that took place this past week even with supply chains being uninterrupted showed the "thin veneer of civilization" is just that, and we'd almost certainly kill one another without some semblance of authoritarian threat in the face of an actual disruption of necessities.

I personally see potential in Norway's parliamentary representative democratic constitutional monarchy.

white ape · Mar 19, 2020

NbleSavage said:
Tough to take what China shares with the rest of the world at face value, but they'll be an interesting canary in a coal mine as to that 2nd wave.

The UK's approach is as good as any: lockdown the at-risk population, build immunity with the healthier younger folks and use what we learn from them in developing the vaccine for the older folks.

In the US, I've been expecting a lockdown this week - hasn't happened yet, but my guess is once testing is more readily available and the real number of infected is known (or close to it) the govt's hand will be forced. Just speculation on my part obviously.

I got a text message this morning from Next Level Urgent Care. They are doing virtual appointments and if deemed you need tested they are directing people to the closest drive thru testing facility. This keeps the possibly sick somewhat quarantined I suppose.

white ape · Mar 19, 2020

German89 said:
I like Japan's plan

Is that the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil plan?

German89 · Mar 19, 2020

white ape said:
Is that the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil plan?

Yes sir.

The "pure" plan

white ape · Mar 19, 2020

NbleSavage said:
I love to debate the possibilities of an anarchist society as much as the next guy, but I think the near-looting that took place this past week even with supply chains being uninterrupted showed the "thin veneer of civilization" is just that, and we'd almost certainly kill one another without some semblance of authoritarian threat in the face of an actual disruption of necessities.

I personally see potential in Norway's parliamentary representative democratic constitutional monarchy.

That's what I'm saying! "civilized society" is such a farce. Let Americans be without running water or electricity for a week and see what happens. Chaos.

I actually think less developed countries would do better in situations where the power or water gets turned off. Or even shortages of food or shit paper. They are used to it. Many people in many countries live a simpler life with less material stuff and basic comforts. Being in America scares me more during times like this. "civilized societies" are soft. Look at us freaking out about TP.

j2048b · Mar 19, 2020

Uncle manny said:
Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....

Easy peazy, they infected all their protestors and sent them out to infect the entire world.... See any protestors once this virus started knocking them out....

Sh its a lot deeper than we think.... Yeah im a conspiracy nut, but too much of it makes sense to me

German89 · Mar 19, 2020

j2048b said:
Easy peazy, they infected all their protestors and sent them out to infect the entire world.... See any protestors once this virus started knocking them out....

Sh its a lot deeper than we think.... Yeah im a conspiracy nut, but too much of it makes sense to me

I'm with you on the conspiracy theories

white ape · Mar 19, 2020

German89 said:
I'm with you on the conspiracy theories

Same. Also all the stuff that they don't teach in school. I was speaking to a woman in line at Target the other day. BSing about TP and panic and all that. I brought up the full of 1918. She had never heard of it and majored in history in college.

NbleSavage · Mar 19, 2020

German89 said:
I'm with you on the conspiracy theories

Here's another one then - a recording of some dire commentary on COVID from a US Senator on the virus to a small group of well-heeled benefactors and business men weeks before the actual severity was being publicly spoken of by the White House. Think they took advantage of the situation financially?

German89 · Mar 19, 2020

NbleSavage said:
Here's another one then - a recording of some dire commentary on COVID from a US Senator on the virus to a small group of well-heeled benefactors and business men weeks before the actual severity was being publicly spoken of by the White House. Think they took advantage of the situation financially?

Oh fuc yeah... lemme listen in a few. Just pouring a whiskey and got 2 more chores to accomplish.

Kinda missed being a stay at home mum

Jin · Mar 19, 2020

Uncle manny said:
Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....

1. You can’t trust the Chinese government to be transparent. Not with their own people and not with the international community.

2. Not back to business as usual.

I’m Skyping with my old homestay student again today. He lives in Beijing. I’ll post an update.

two weeks ago he had been in isolation for 6 weeks.

NbleSavage · Mar 19, 2020

^^ In for the update ^^

Hope yer Mate is safe and healthy.

Covid Exit Strategy

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