CohibaRobusto
Elite
- Joined
- Feb 7, 2020
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Anyone here play with stocks or manage their own retirement?
If so, I hope you're making out ok with the recent Coronovirus related declines.
I first started investing / saving for retirement right around the time of the 2008 financial collapse. That scared the shit out of me, and I barely had anything saved. From that point on I made a big effort to educate myself about financial things and investing. I had a family to support, and I realized that I couldn't trust anyone but myself to do what I thought best with our money. (There were a lot of portfolio managers and financial advisors that gave bad advice and lost people's money during the collapse).
I'm doing ok now, and I pulled nearly all of my money in corporate stocks out last fall right at the time of the yield curve inversion. The money I still have invested is mainly in gold ETF's, which have always made up a sizeable defensive part of my portfolio, and some treasury and municipal bond funds that are up right now also because of this madness.
I'm also a fan of crypto, which will probably put a target on my back if we have any traditional investing guys here.
So here's my theory on coronovirus and the market. Things are going to keep getting worse for a while. Anywhere from 2+ months of declines. Best case, we get a vaccine to market pretty fast before any bankruptcy contagion starts (2 mos hypothesis) and things start recovering quickly.
Worst case, bankruptcies start, a lending weakness emerges (similar to the mortgage crisis in 2008), and contagion spreads kicking off a global financial crisis. The fed and central banks are going to try to head it off by printing money and negative interest rates and it will be a long slow (years) recovery. I'm not ready to predict all-out global financial collapse yet though.
I'm keeping my cash on the sidelines until I feel better about which way things are going. I manage my family's money, and I run all of my big decisions by my wife before I pull the trigger. 2 reasons for that:
1, it keeps me honest and from acting on dumb ideas (and believe me I get a lot of those), because I don't want to run a dumbass idea by her.
2. it keeps her involved so she knows what's going on, and if things go South and I **** up, well there's "hey, I ran this by you and you signed off on it!" LOL
I think Gold has a bright future right now, that's my only positive stock prediction. I also think the long term BTC charts look good.
If so, I hope you're making out ok with the recent Coronovirus related declines.
I first started investing / saving for retirement right around the time of the 2008 financial collapse. That scared the shit out of me, and I barely had anything saved. From that point on I made a big effort to educate myself about financial things and investing. I had a family to support, and I realized that I couldn't trust anyone but myself to do what I thought best with our money. (There were a lot of portfolio managers and financial advisors that gave bad advice and lost people's money during the collapse).
I'm doing ok now, and I pulled nearly all of my money in corporate stocks out last fall right at the time of the yield curve inversion. The money I still have invested is mainly in gold ETF's, which have always made up a sizeable defensive part of my portfolio, and some treasury and municipal bond funds that are up right now also because of this madness.
I'm also a fan of crypto, which will probably put a target on my back if we have any traditional investing guys here.
So here's my theory on coronovirus and the market. Things are going to keep getting worse for a while. Anywhere from 2+ months of declines. Best case, we get a vaccine to market pretty fast before any bankruptcy contagion starts (2 mos hypothesis) and things start recovering quickly.
Worst case, bankruptcies start, a lending weakness emerges (similar to the mortgage crisis in 2008), and contagion spreads kicking off a global financial crisis. The fed and central banks are going to try to head it off by printing money and negative interest rates and it will be a long slow (years) recovery. I'm not ready to predict all-out global financial collapse yet though.
I'm keeping my cash on the sidelines until I feel better about which way things are going. I manage my family's money, and I run all of my big decisions by my wife before I pull the trigger. 2 reasons for that:
1, it keeps me honest and from acting on dumb ideas (and believe me I get a lot of those), because I don't want to run a dumbass idea by her.
2. it keeps her involved so she knows what's going on, and if things go South and I **** up, well there's "hey, I ran this by you and you signed off on it!" LOL
I think Gold has a bright future right now, that's my only positive stock prediction. I also think the long term BTC charts look good.